In the face of sea ice loss, some of the bears on the Norwegian archipelago are gaining weight. Three polar bear cubs gather around their tranquilized mother. She had a litter of three cubs (an unusual brood size) and the smallest cub only weighed 11 pounds (five kilograms). Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. The Arctic's polar bears () are often the poster species for the perils of climate change .

Interactions between different components of the Earth System (e.g. ocean, atmosphere, land and cryosphere) are a crucial driver of global weather patterns. Modern Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems typically run separate models of the different components, explicitly coupled across their interfaces to additionally model exchanges between the different components. Accurately representing these coupled interactions remains a major scientific and technical challenge of weather forecasting. GraphDOP is a graph-based machine learning model that learns to forecast weather directly from raw satellite and in-situ observations, without reliance on reanalysis products or traditional physics-based NWP models. GraphDOP simultaneously embeds information from diverse observation sources spanning the full Earth system into a shared latent space. This enables predictions that implicitly capture cross-domain interactions in a single model without the need for any explicit coupling. Here we present a selection of case studies which illustrate the capability of GraphDOP to forecast events where coupled processes play a particularly key role. These include rapid sea-ice freezing in the Arctic, mixing-induced ocean surface cooling during Hurricane Ian and the severe European heat wave of 2022. The results suggest that learning directly from Earth System observations can successfully characterise and propagate cross-component interactions, offering a promising path towards physically consistent end-to-end data-driven Earth System prediction with a single model.

Ernest Shackleton knew'Endurance' had shortcomings, new study says Issues with the ship's hull, deck beams, and more show the ship was no match for Antarctic sea ice. The'Endurance' leaning to one side, during the Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition, 1914-17, led by Sir Ernest Shackleton. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. For almost 110 years, the has rested at the bottom of the icy waters of the Antarctic's Weddell Sea . Long held as the poster ship for Antarctic exploration, Sir Ernest Shackleton's ill-fated ship was no match for the crushing sea ice that sank it in November 1915 .

Traditional numerical global climate models simulate the full Earth system by exchanging boundary conditions between separate simulators of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, and other geophysical processes. This paradigm allows for distributed development of individual components within a common framework, unified by a coupler that handles translation between realms via spatial or temporal alignment and flux exchange. Following a similar approach adapted for machine learning-based emulators, we present SamudrACE: a coupled global climate model emulator which produces centuries-long simulations at 1-degree horizontal, 6-hourly atmospheric, and 5-daily oceanic resolution, with 145 2D fields spanning 8 atmospheric and 19 oceanic vertical levels, plus sea ice, surface, and top-of-atmosphere variables. SamudrACE is highly stable and has low climate biases comparable to those of its components with prescribed boundary forcing, with realistic variability in coupled climate phenomena such as ENSO that is not possible to simulate in uncoupled mode.

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise seasonal sea ice forecasts. While dynamical models perform well for short-term forecasts, they encounter limitations in long-term forecasts and are computationally intensive. Deep learning models, while more computationally efficient, often have difficulty managing seasonal variations and uncertainties when dealing with complex sea ice dynamics. In this research, we introduce IceMamba, a deep learning architecture that integrates sophisticated attention mechanisms within the state space model. Through comparative analysis of 25 renowned forecast models, including dynamical, statistical, and deep learning approaches, our experimental results indicate that IceMamba delivers excellent seasonal forecasting capabilities for Pan-Arctic sea ice concentration. Specifically, IceMamba outperforms all tested models regarding average RMSE and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and ranks second in Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE). This innovative approach enhances our ability to foresee and alleviate the effects of sea ice variability, offering essential insights for strategies aimed at climate adaptation.

The Ice, Cloud, and Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) provides high-resolution measurements of sea ice height. Recent studies have developed machine learning methods on ICESat-2 data, primarily focusing on surface type classification. However, the heavy reliance on manually collected labels requires significant time and effort for supervised learning, as it involves cross-referencing track measurements with overlapping background optical imagery. Additionally, the coincidence of ICESat-2 tracks with background images is relatively rare due to the different overpass patterns and atmospheric conditions. To address these limitations, this study explores the potential of unsupervised autoencoder on unlabeled data to derive latent embeddings. We develop autoencoder models based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to reconstruct topographic sequences from ICESat-2 and derive embeddings. We then apply Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) to reduce dimensions and visualize the embeddings. Our results show that embeddings from autoencoders preserve the overall structure but generate relatively more compact clusters compared to the original ICESat-2 data, indicating the potential of embeddings to lessen the number of required labels samples.

Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting methods have emerged and showcased superior performance over physics-based dynamical models. However, previous methods forecast SIC at a fixed temporal granularity, e.g. sub-seasonal or seasonal, thus only leveraging inter-granularity information and overlooking the plentiful inter-granularity correlations. SIC at various temporal granularities exhibits cumulative effects and are naturally consistent, with short-term fluctuations potentially impacting long-term trends and long-term trends provides effective hints for facilitating short-term forecasts in Arctic sea ice. Therefore, in this study, we propose to cultivate temporal multi-granularity that naturally derived from Arctic sea ice reanalysis data and provide a unified perspective for modeling SIC via our Sea Ice Foundation Model. SIFM is delicately designed to leverage both intra-granularity and inter-granularity information for capturing granularity-consistent representations that promote forecasting skills. Our extensive experiments show that SIFM outperforms off-the-shelf deep learning models for their specific temporal granularity.

Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and scientific studies. Recent pan-Arctic sea ice forecasting methods that leverage advances in artificial intelligence has made promising progress over numerical models. However, forecasting sea ice at higher resolutions is still under-explored. To bridge the gap, we propose a two-staged deep learning framework, IceDiff, to forecast sea ice concentration at finer scales. IceDiff first leverages an independently trained vision transformer to generate coarse yet superior forecasting over previous methods at a regular 25km x 25km grid. This high-quality sea ice forecasting can be utilized as reliable guidance for the next stage. Subsequently, an unconditional diffusion model pre-trained on sea ice concentration maps is utilized for sampling down-scaled sea ice forecasting via a zero-shot guided sampling strategy and a patch-based method. For the first time, IceDiff demonstrates sea ice forecasting with the 6.25km x 6.25km resolution. IceDiff extends the boundary of existing sea ice forecasting models and more importantly, its capability to generate high-resolution sea ice concentration data is vital for pragmatic usages and research.

Warming temperatures mean shorter ice seasons in Sanikiluaq, Nunavut. As a result, the stretches of landfast ice formed from frozen seawater that Inuit use to travel and hunt on are increasingly unpredictable and unsafe. Polynyas, areas of open water and thin ice, occur where ocean currents or wind prevent pack ice from forming. They're typically found in the same locations each year enabling travellers to plan their routes safely. But climate change is affecting this predictability, causing smaller, unexpected polynyas that make travelling across the pack ice risky.

Sea ice at the North Pole is vital to global climate dynamics. However, accurately forecasting sea ice poses a significant challenge due to the intricate interaction among multiple variables. Leveraging the capability to integrate multiple inputs and powerful performances seamlessly, many studies have turned to neural networks for sea ice forecasting. This paper introduces a novel deep architecture named Unicorn, designed to forecast weekly sea ice. Our model integrates multiple time series images within its architecture to enhance its forecasting performance. Moreover, we incorporate a bottleneck layer within the U-Net architecture, serving as neural ordinary differential equations with convolution operations, to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics of latent variables. Through real data analysis with datasets spanning from 1998 to 2021, our proposed model demonstrates significant improvements over state-of-the-art models in the sea ice concentration forecasting task. It achieves an average MAE improvement of 12% compared to benchmark models. Additionally, our method outperforms existing approaches in sea ice extent forecasting, achieving a classification performance improvement of approximately 18%. These experimental results show the superiority of our proposed model.